AV technology merits the immediate attention of policymakers for several
reasons. First, the technology appears close to maturity and commercial
introduction. Google’s efforts—which involve a fleet of cars
that collectively have logged hundreds of thousands of autonomous
miles—have received widespread media attention and demonstrate
that this technology has advanced considerably. Every major commercial
automaker is engaged in research in this area and full-scale commercial
introduction of truly autonomous (including driverless) vehicles
are being predicted to occur within five to 20 years. Several states
have passed laws to regulate the use of AVs, and many more laws have
been proposed. As these technologies trickle (or flood) into the marketplace,
it is important for both state and federal policymakers to understand
the effects that existing policy (or lack thereof) are likely to have
on the development and adoption of this technology.
Second, the stakes are high. In the United States alone, more than 30,000 people are killed each year in crashes, approximately 2.5 million are injured, and the vast majority of these crashes are the result of human error (Choi et al., 2008). By greatly reducing the opportunity for human error, AV technologies have the potential to greatly reduce the number of crashes.
AVs may also reduce congestion and its associated costs. Estimates suggest that effective road capacity (vehicles per lane per hour) can be doubled or tripled. The costs of congestion can also be greatly reduced if vehicle operators can productively conduct other work. AV technology also promises to reduce energy use.5 Automobiles have become increasingly heavy over the past 20 years partly to meet more rigorous crash test standards. If crashes become exceedingly rare events, it may be possible to dramatically lighten automobiles.
In the long run, AVs may also improve land use. Quite apart from the environmental toll of fuel generation and consumption, the existing automobile shapes much of our built environment. Its centrality to our lives accounts for the acres of parking in even our most densely occupied cities.6 With the ability to drive and park themselves at some distance from their users, AVs may obviate the need for nearby parking for commercial, residential, or work establishments, which may enable a reshaping of the urban environment and permit new in-fill development as adjacent parking lots are made unnecessary.
Along with these benefits, however, AVs could have many negative effects. By reducing the time cost of driving, AVs may encourage greater travel and increase total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which could lead to more congestion.7 They may increase sprawl if commuters move ever farther away from workplaces. Similarly, AVs may eventually .
6 Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers
shift users’ preferences toward larger vehicles to permit other activities. In theory, this could even include beds, showers, kitchens, or offices. If AV software becomes standardized, a single flaw might lead to many accidents. Internet-connected systems might be hacked by the malicious. And perhaps the biggest risks are simply unknowable.
From seatbelts, to air bags, to antilock brakes, automakers have often been reluctant to incorporate expensive new technology, even if it can save many lives (Mashaw and Harfst, 1990). Navigating the AV landscape makes implementation of these earlier safety improvements appear simple by comparison. Negotiating the risks to reach the opportunities will require careful policymaking, and this report identifies the critical issues and context as policymakers collectively define a path forward.
Second, the stakes are high. In the United States alone, more than 30,000 people are killed each year in crashes, approximately 2.5 million are injured, and the vast majority of these crashes are the result of human error (Choi et al., 2008). By greatly reducing the opportunity for human error, AV technologies have the potential to greatly reduce the number of crashes.
AVs may also reduce congestion and its associated costs. Estimates suggest that effective road capacity (vehicles per lane per hour) can be doubled or tripled. The costs of congestion can also be greatly reduced if vehicle operators can productively conduct other work. AV technology also promises to reduce energy use.5 Automobiles have become increasingly heavy over the past 20 years partly to meet more rigorous crash test standards. If crashes become exceedingly rare events, it may be possible to dramatically lighten automobiles.
In the long run, AVs may also improve land use. Quite apart from the environmental toll of fuel generation and consumption, the existing automobile shapes much of our built environment. Its centrality to our lives accounts for the acres of parking in even our most densely occupied cities.6 With the ability to drive and park themselves at some distance from their users, AVs may obviate the need for nearby parking for commercial, residential, or work establishments, which may enable a reshaping of the urban environment and permit new in-fill development as adjacent parking lots are made unnecessary.
Along with these benefits, however, AVs could have many negative effects. By reducing the time cost of driving, AVs may encourage greater travel and increase total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which could lead to more congestion.7 They may increase sprawl if commuters move ever farther away from workplaces. Similarly, AVs may eventually .
6 Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers
shift users’ preferences toward larger vehicles to permit other activities. In theory, this could even include beds, showers, kitchens, or offices. If AV software becomes standardized, a single flaw might lead to many accidents. Internet-connected systems might be hacked by the malicious. And perhaps the biggest risks are simply unknowable.
From seatbelts, to air bags, to antilock brakes, automakers have often been reluctant to incorporate expensive new technology, even if it can save many lives (Mashaw and Harfst, 1990). Navigating the AV landscape makes implementation of these earlier safety improvements appear simple by comparison. Negotiating the risks to reach the opportunities will require careful policymaking, and this report identifies the critical issues and context as policymakers collectively define a path forward.
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